{ "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T16:29:31.699105+00:00", "site": { "name": "The Long Ball", "url": "https://thelongball.app", "tagline": "Digging the data behind the distance." }, "dataset": "Defense Subsidy", "displayName": "Defense Subsidy", "version": "1.0", "methodologyVersion": "Defense Subsidy v1.0", "internalIdentifier": "defenseSubsidy", "season": 2026, "asOfDate": "2026-09-13", "description": "A season-to-date team-context read comparing actual and expected wOBA on tracked, non-home-run balls in play.", "definition": "Actual minus expected wOBA on tracked, non-home-run balls in play. It measures the gloves and the bounces together: defense and batted-ball luck are not separated.", "interpretation": "Negative defenseSubsidy means actual results were better than the contact expectation, so the staff was helped. Positive means the staff was hurt.", "units": { "stored": "raw signed wOBA difference, unrounded", "display": "whole wOBA points (defenseSubsidy multiplied by 1,000)" }, "warnings": [ "Descriptive team context for this season only; not a pitcher-skill stat, plus metric, or projection input.", "The number combines the gloves and the bounces. It does not isolate defense from batted-ball luck.", "Home runs are excluded because a defense cannot field them; Getting Cooked is shown separately for HR-capable contact.", "Pitcher rows are descriptive staff detail and require the frozen BIP qualifier; team totals include every eligible staff BIP." ], "fields": { "team": "MLB team abbreviation for the pitching staff.", "leagueRank": "Rank from most helped (1) to most hurt (30) by raw defenseSubsidy.", "staffBip": "All tracked, non-home-run terminal fair BIP allowed by the staff, including sub-qualifier pitchers.", "pitcher": "Pitcher display name.", "mlbamId": "MLB Advanced Media pitcher identifier.", "bip": "Pitcher's tracked, non-home-run terminal fair BIP sample.", "actualWobaOnBip": "Mean realized wOBA value on the eligible BIP sample.", "expectedWobaOnBip": "Mean historical-league expected wOBA from exit velocity, launch angle, and batted-ball type.", "defenseSubsidy": "Actual minus expected wOBA on eligible BIP, stored unrounded. Negative means helped; positive means hurt. It combines the gloves and the bounces.", "cookedPlus": "Getting Cooked plus-style score for HR-capable contact allowed per BBE; 100 is qualified-pitcher average. Null means unavailable or unqualified in the same-vintage Hot Dog Stand payload." }, "qualifiedBy": { "pitcherMinimumBip": 100, "teamTotalsIncludeSubQualifierPitchers": true }, "league": { "bip": 109545, "bipWeightedMeanDefenseSubsidy": -0.002811199658874034 }, "teams": [ { "team": "CHC", "leagueRank": 1, "staffBip": 3707, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.27212031292149985, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3045105633739675, "defenseSubsidy": -0.032390250452467614, "pitchers": [ { "pitcher": "Javier Assad", "mlbamId": 665871, "bip": 252, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.22698412698412698, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2957977946529399, "defenseSubsidy": -0.0688136676688129, "cookedPlus": 107.6 }, { "pitcher": "Clay Holmes", "mlbamId": 605280, "bip": 114, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2399122807017544, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3044873042392743, "defenseSubsidy": -0.06457502353751987, "cookedPlus": 61.5 }, { "pitcher": "Hoby Milner", "mlbamId": 571948, "bip": 114, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.26184210526315793, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3214939966122857, "defenseSubsidy": -0.05965189134912781, "cookedPlus": 73.7 }, { "pitcher": "Ben Brown", "mlbamId": 676962, "bip": 175, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.25457142857142856, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2991228226143418, "defenseSubsidy": -0.0445513940429132, "cookedPlus": null }, { "pitcher": "Jacob Webb", "mlbamId": 657097, "bip": 162, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.28641975308641976, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.32892624076584376, "defenseSubsidy": -0.04250648767942403, "cookedPlus": 88.0 }, { "pitcher": "Trent Thornton", "mlbamId": 663423, "bip": 137, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.23868613138686134, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2809328140325083, "defenseSubsidy": -0.042246682645646974, "cookedPlus": 141.5 }, { "pitcher": "David Peterson", "mlbamId": 656849, "bip": 188, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.3069148936170213, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3436536902495301, "defenseSubsidy": -0.03673879663250882, "cookedPlus": 79.1 }, { "pitcher": "Matthew Boyd", "mlbamId": 571510, "bip": 328, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.275609756097561, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3072536987395938, "defenseSubsidy": -0.031643942642032775, "cookedPlus": 103.7 }, { "pitcher": "Edward Cabrera", "mlbamId": 665795, "bip": 212, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.29245283018867924, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.32390297710477733, "defenseSubsidy": -0.03145014691609809, "cookedPlus": 126.5 }, { "pitcher": "Jameson Taillon", "mlbamId": 592791, "bip": 204, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2465686274509804, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2748785075163643, "defenseSubsidy": -0.028309880065383868, "cookedPlus": 178.9 }, { "pitcher": "Shota Imanaga", "mlbamId": 684007, "bip": 428, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.25771028037383176, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2839520488230782, "defenseSubsidy": -0.026241768449246385, "cookedPlus": 121.4 }, { "pitcher": "Colin Rea", "mlbamId": 607067, "bip": 400, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.28350000000000003, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.30753729333747903, "defenseSubsidy": -0.024037293337479056, "cookedPlus": 113.7 }, { "pitcher": "Ryan Rolison", "mlbamId": 669020, "bip": 152, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2730263157894737, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2951694744416626, "defenseSubsidy": -0.022143158652188848, "cookedPlus": 86.6 }, { "pitcher": "Kevin Gausman", "mlbamId": 592332, "bip": 103, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2966019417475728, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.31594939886402307, "defenseSubsidy": -0.01934745711645029, "cookedPlus": 106.7 }, { "pitcher": "Caleb Thielbar", "mlbamId": 573204, "bip": 110, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2990909090909091, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.31565730332054465, "defenseSubsidy": -0.016566394229635552, "cookedPlus": 180.9 } ] }, { "team": "TB", "leagueRank": 2, "staffBip": 3639, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.27345424567188786, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.30276466997884316, "defenseSubsidy": -0.029310424306955313, "pitchers": [ { "pitcher": "Bryan Baker", "mlbamId": 641329, "bip": 140, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.21428571428571427, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.28517965506234993, "defenseSubsidy": -0.07089394077663565, "cookedPlus": null }, { "pitcher": "Kevin Kelly", "mlbamId": 687330, "bip": 181, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2591160220994475, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3219263428902648, "defenseSubsidy": -0.0628103207908173, "cookedPlus": 51.2 }, { "pitcher": "Freddy Peralta", "mlbamId": 642547, "bip": 121, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.21239669421487603, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.27315549842743, "defenseSubsidy": -0.06075880421255392, "cookedPlus": 95.4 }, { "pitcher": "Steven Matz", "mlbamId": 571927, "bip": 226, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2676991150442478, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.31882866576588326, "defenseSubsidy": -0.0511295507216355, "cookedPlus": 125.4 }, { "pitcher": "Drew Rasmussen", "mlbamId": 656876, "bip": 417, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.257673860911271, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.30103629313314295, "defenseSubsidy": -0.04336243222187196, "cookedPlus": 57.1 }, { "pitcher": "Shane McClanahan", "mlbamId": 663556, "bip": 326, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.26564417177914107, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.30705581673748555, "defenseSubsidy": -0.04141164495834443, "cookedPlus": 93.6 }, { "pitcher": "Nick Martinez", "mlbamId": 607259, "bip": 519, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.26059730250481694, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2961741872337498, "defenseSubsidy": -0.03557688472893284, "cookedPlus": 91.5 }, { "pitcher": "Griffin Jax", "mlbamId": 643377, "bip": 259, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.3034749034749035, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3276427697236495, "defenseSubsidy": -0.024167866248745968, "cookedPlus": 134.8 }, { "pitcher": "Jesse Scholtens", "mlbamId": 669947, "bip": 135, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2951851851851852, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3123727180462096, "defenseSubsidy": -0.01718753286102437, "cookedPlus": 132.1 }, { "pitcher": "Casey Legumina", "mlbamId": 668984, "bip": 159, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.29150943396226414, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.30321587262994126, "defenseSubsidy": -0.011706438667677106, "cookedPlus": 60.6 }, { "pitcher": "Cole Sulser", "mlbamId": 642121, "bip": 139, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.3151079136690647, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3131061475673104, "defenseSubsidy": 0.00200176610175433, "cookedPlus": 103.1 }, { "pitcher": "Ian Seymour", "mlbamId": 693855, "bip": 298, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.30654362416107384, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.28755536264933074, "defenseSubsidy": 0.01898826151174309, "cookedPlus": 123.6 }, { "pitcher": "Mason Englert", "mlbamId": 669438, "bip": 104, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.3298076923076923, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.308867989862018, "defenseSubsidy": 0.020939702445674273, "cookedPlus": 169.5 } ] }, { "team": "ATL", "leagueRank": 3, "staffBip": 3611, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2810163389642758, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.29880297580723664, "defenseSubsidy": -0.01778663684296082, "pitchers": [ { "pitcher": "Tyler Mahle", "mlbamId": 641816, "bip": 117, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2611111111111111, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3215558423429394, "defenseSubsidy": -0.06044473123182826, "cookedPlus": 90.0 }, { "pitcher": "Martín Pérez", "mlbamId": 527048, "bip": 376, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.26502659574468085, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.31511375756355975, "defenseSubsidy": -0.05008716181887887, "cookedPlus": 73.8 }, { "pitcher": "JR Ritchie", "mlbamId": 702275, "bip": 152, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2388157894736842, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.28466161945066887, "defenseSubsidy": -0.04584582997698469, "cookedPlus": 102.0 }, { "pitcher": "Dylan Dodd", "mlbamId": 689266, "bip": 108, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2111111111111111, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.25642998987052923, "defenseSubsidy": -0.045318878759418105, "cookedPlus": 120.0 }, { "pitcher": "Grant Holmes", "mlbamId": 656550, "bip": 408, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2584558823529412, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.29606295044977377, "defenseSubsidy": -0.037607068096832556, "cookedPlus": 118.3 }, { "pitcher": "Bryce Elder", "mlbamId": 693821, "bip": 435, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2711494252873563, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3014793963394544, "defenseSubsidy": -0.03032997105209811, "cookedPlus": 98.3 }, { "pitcher": "Chris Sale", "mlbamId": 519242, "bip": 383, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.3035248041775457, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.31437012412399784, "defenseSubsidy": -0.010845319946452143, "cookedPlus": 66.3 }, { "pitcher": "Reynaldo López", "mlbamId": 625643, "bip": 212, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2990566037735849, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3082140597813162, "defenseSubsidy": -0.009157456007731327, "cookedPlus": 92.0 }, { "pitcher": "Raisel Iglesias", "mlbamId": 628452, "bip": 141, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.299290780141844, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2989724437940605, "defenseSubsidy": 0.0003183363477834899, "cookedPlus": 83.8 }, { "pitcher": "Didier Fuentes", "mlbamId": 800311, "bip": 159, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.30880503144654087, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.306276818628909, "defenseSubsidy": 0.0025282128176318803, "cookedPlus": 50.0 }, { "pitcher": "Tyler Kinley", "mlbamId": 641755, "bip": 105, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.24476190476190476, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.24189167808439577, "defenseSubsidy": 0.0028702266775089977, "cookedPlus": 112.3 }, { "pitcher": "Dylan Lee", "mlbamId": 669276, "bip": 156, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.291025641025641, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.27402934093007364, "defenseSubsidy": 0.01699630009556738, "cookedPlus": null } ] }, { "team": "NYY", "leagueRank": 4, "staffBip": 3469, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2836552320553474, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2998171088663127, "defenseSubsidy": -0.0161618768109653, "pitchers": [ { "pitcher": "Paul Blackburn", "mlbamId": 621112, "bip": 212, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.22547169811320758, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.29180910758505074, "defenseSubsidy": -0.0663374094718432, "cookedPlus": 87.4 }, { "pitcher": "Carlos Rodón", "mlbamId": 607074, "bip": 167, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.24520958083832337, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.29482974054345745, "defenseSubsidy": -0.049620159705134136, "cookedPlus": 87.0 }, { "pitcher": "Gerrit Cole", "mlbamId": 543037, "bip": 306, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2874183006535948, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3295735657053484, "defenseSubsidy": -0.04215526505175363, "cookedPlus": 122.1 }, { "pitcher": "Tim Hill", "mlbamId": 657612, "bip": 171, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2304093567251462, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2666647419623819, "defenseSubsidy": -0.03625538523723567, "cookedPlus": 97.7 }, { "pitcher": "Cam Schlittler", "mlbamId": 693645, "bip": 425, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.26705882352941174, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2916708009734028, "defenseSubsidy": -0.024611977443991025, "cookedPlus": 105.5 }, { "pitcher": "Ryan Weathers", "mlbamId": 677960, "bip": 364, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.310989010989011, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.328249661936861, "defenseSubsidy": -0.017260650947850023, "cookedPlus": 93.1 }, { "pitcher": "Will Warren", "mlbamId": 701542, "bip": 399, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.3279448621553885, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.32767124367415285, "defenseSubsidy": 0.00027361848123563397, "cookedPlus": 104.2 }, { "pitcher": "David Bednar", "mlbamId": 670280, "bip": 164, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.28689024390243906, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.28319108438349094, "defenseSubsidy": 0.003699159518948049, "cookedPlus": null }, { "pitcher": "Max Fried", "mlbamId": 608331, "bip": 233, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.26759656652360514, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2610093645066354, "defenseSubsidy": 0.006587202016969733, "cookedPlus": null }, { "pitcher": "Camilo Doval", "mlbamId": 666808, "bip": 108, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.3027777777777778, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2923105499220797, "defenseSubsidy": 0.01046722785569806, "cookedPlus": 80.5 }, { "pitcher": "Ryan Yarbrough", "mlbamId": 642232, "bip": 168, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2800595238095238, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2676832711791531, "defenseSubsidy": 0.012376252630370767, "cookedPlus": null }, { "pitcher": "Fernando Cruz", "mlbamId": 518585, "bip": 126, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.27341269841269844, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2591333551948533, "defenseSubsidy": 0.014279343217845082, "cookedPlus": 133.7 }, { "pitcher": "Brent Headrick", "mlbamId": 687396, "bip": 183, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.3453551912568306, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3247840262121524, "defenseSubsidy": 0.020571165044678204, "cookedPlus": null } ] }, { "team": "LAD", "leagueRank": 5, "staffBip": 3404, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2790687426556992, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.29337149943687174, "defenseSubsidy": -0.014302756781172571, "pitchers": [ { "pitcher": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "mlbamId": 808967, "bip": 422, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.22725118483412324, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.28064216660296587, "defenseSubsidy": -0.05339098176884264, "cookedPlus": 93.1 }, { "pitcher": "Justin Wrobleski", "mlbamId": 680736, "bip": 384, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.27421875, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.31495316907898235, "defenseSubsidy": -0.04073441907898237, "cookedPlus": 97.9 }, { "pitcher": "Tyler Glasnow", "mlbamId": 607192, "bip": 136, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2533088235294118, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2853322402093779, "defenseSubsidy": -0.03202341667996616, "cookedPlus": 106.0 }, { "pitcher": "Shohei Ohtani", "mlbamId": 660271, "bip": 209, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.24665071770334931, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2786163759365694, "defenseSubsidy": -0.0319656582332201, "cookedPlus": null }, { "pitcher": "Tanner Scott", "mlbamId": 656945, "bip": 141, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.3120567375886525, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3376822015401018, "defenseSubsidy": -0.025625463951449344, "cookedPlus": null }, { "pitcher": "Jack Dreyer", "mlbamId": 676263, "bip": 137, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2718978102189781, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.29524346366169546, "defenseSubsidy": -0.023345653442717346, "cookedPlus": 114.0 }, { "pitcher": "Alex Vesia", "mlbamId": 681911, "bip": 117, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.23931623931623933, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2552152430519346, "defenseSubsidy": -0.01589900373569527, "cookedPlus": null }, { "pitcher": "Eric Lauer", "mlbamId": 641778, "bip": 219, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2545662100456621, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2650196082018209, "defenseSubsidy": -0.010453398156158828, "cookedPlus": 124.0 }, { "pitcher": "Tarik Skubal", "mlbamId": 669373, "bip": 112, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.32723214285714286, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.3316321171151962, "defenseSubsidy": -0.004399974258053315, "cookedPlus": 77.1 }, { "pitcher": "Roki Sasaki", "mlbamId": 808963, "bip": 318, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.2949685534591195, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.29933031242395974, "defenseSubsidy": -0.004361758964840219, "cookedPlus": 124.7 }, { "pitcher": "Emmet Sheehan", "mlbamId": 686218, "bip": 270, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.29444444444444445, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.282646068514712, "defenseSubsidy": 0.01179837592973239, "cookedPlus": 122.2 }, { "pitcher": "Kyle Hurt", "mlbamId": 669165, "bip": 106, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.32547169811320753, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.2981279417448342, "defenseSubsidy": 0.027343756368373325, "cookedPlus": 135.6 }, { "pitcher": "Edgardo Henriquez", "mlbamId": 683618, "bip": 139, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.27410071942446046, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.24596060823583987, "defenseSubsidy": 0.02814011118862054, "cookedPlus": null }, { "pitcher": "Will Klein", "mlbamId": 694361, "bip": 111, "actualWobaOnBip": 0.35315315315315315, "expectedWobaOnBip": 0.32405151544376376, "defenseSubsidy": 0.029101637709389457, "cookedPlus": null } ] }, { "team": "AZ", "leagueRank": 6, "staffBip": 3919, 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0.2873639222930893, "defenseSubsidy": 0.05485829992913291, "cookedPlus": 103.0 } ] } ], "identityChecks": { "passed": true, "teamCount": 30, "leagueBip": 109545, "leagueBipWeightedMeanDefenseSubsidy": -0.002811199658874034, "leagueMeanTolerance": 0.005, "maximumTeamWeightedIdentityDelta": 3.469446951953614e-18, "teamIdentityTolerance": 1e-12, "errors": [] }, "source": { "pitchCache": "data/raw/statcast-pitches.csv.gz", "pitchCacheMaxDate": "2026-09-13", "model": "data/models/defense-subsidy-v1.0-2021-2025.joblib", "modelVersion": "1.0", "modelTrainingSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "modelTrainingBip": 588905, "expectation": "Historical-league HGB actual-wOBA expectation from EV, LA, and batted-ball type", "hotDogStand": { "path": "public/data/hot-dog-stand-latest.json", "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T16:29:24.524947+00:00", "season": 2026, "methodologyVersion": "Hot Dog Stand v1.3" } } }