Probable Starter Context
Stack Watch
Pitcher-specific Stack Score for probable starters, with opponent lineup LBI, HR park factor, and weather shown as context only.
Slate date: 2026-07-08
Generated: 2026-07-08 18:57 UTC
Generated: 2026-07-08 18:57 UTC
Partial slate: 1 probable starter slot still TBD; some lineups are still using team-power proxies. Stack scores will update as MLB publishes probable pitchers and confirmed lineups.
Thunder Allowed
HR-Window Thunder Allowed is the share of batted balls allowed at 105+ mph with a launch angle between 25° and 40°. Stack Score ranks probable starters by this HR-shaped contact signal, with xHR/BBE allowed and HR-capable contact as support.
Color Key
Mustard rows are limited-sample starters. Full-sample rows are unshaded.
| # | Pitcher | Stack Score | Thunder Allowed | xHR/BBE Allowed | HR-Capable / BBE | HDI | Opp LBI | Park | Weather | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dean KremerBAL home vs CHC | 100.0 | 6.1% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 91.8team proxy | Oriole Park at Camden YardsNeutral | 83 F, 4 mph wind, 0% rain | Attackable thunder profile; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available | |
| 2 | Jeffrey SpringsATH away vs DET | 86.1 | 2.4% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 128.5 | 89.3team proxy | Comerica ParkSignificant HR Suppressor | 87 F, 9 mph wind, 0% rain | HDI backs the signal; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 3 | Michael McGreevySTL home vs MIL | 83.0 | 2.7% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 116.6 | 90.5team proxy | Busch StadiumSlight HR Suppressor | 90 F, 6 mph wind, 3% rain | Attackable thunder profile; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 4 | Christian ScottNYM home vs KC | 79.9 | 2.4% | 4.6% | 9.7% | 114.5 | 90.6team proxy | Citi FieldSignificant HR Suppressor | 78 F, 10 mph wind, 0% rain | HR-capable contact allowed; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 5 | Roki SasakiLAD home vs COL | 76.2 | 1.8% | 6.7% | 10.7% | 118.4 | 90.3team proxy | UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumSignificant HR Boost | 77 F, 6 mph wind, 0% rain | xHR support is there; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 6 | Jake BennettBOS away vs CWS | 73.8 | 2.5% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 87.7team proxy | Rate FieldSlight HR Boost | 80 F, 6 mph wind, 0% rain | Attackable thunder profile; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available | |
| 7 | Spencer ArrighettiHOU away vs WSH | 71.5 | 2.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 106.1 | 96.0team proxy | Nationals ParkSignificant HR Boost | 84 F, 4 mph wind, 0% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available |
| 8 | Michael KingSD home vs AZ | 67.9 | 2.1% | 4.1% | 7.8% | 100.5 | 87.1team proxy | Petco ParkNeutral | 72 F, 4 mph wind, 0% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 9 | Gerrit ColeNYY away vs TB | 67.3 | 1.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 106.4 | 82.3confirmed | Tropicana FieldNeutral | 90 F, 8 mph wind, 5% rain | xHR support is there; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 10 | Grant HolmesATL away vs PIT | 66.5 | 1.6% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 106.4 | 95.4team proxy | PNC ParkSlight HR Suppressor | 85 F, 4 mph wind, 2% rain | HR-capable contact allowed; Wind context available |
| 11 | Jared JonesPIT home vs ATL | 55.6 | 1.2% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 119.1 | 101.2confirmed | PNC ParkSlight HR Suppressor | 85 F, 4 mph wind, 2% rain | xHR support is there; Wind context available |
| 12 | Connor PrielippMIN home vs CLE | 55.0 | 1.7% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 88.2 | 77.2team proxy | Target FieldSignificant HR Suppressor | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter | |
| 13 | Foster GriffinWSH home vs HOU | 52.9 | 1.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 106.3 | 100.1team proxy | Nationals ParkSignificant HR Boost | 84 F, 4 mph wind, 0% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available |
| 14 | Colin ReaCHC away vs BAL | 47.8 | 1.4% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 93.1 | 91.1confirmed | Oriole Park at Camden YardsNeutral | 83 F, 4 mph wind, 0% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 15 | Kyle HarrisonMIL away vs STL | 47.6 | 1.5% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 76.6 | 93.0team proxy | Busch StadiumSlight HR Suppressor | 90 F, 6 mph wind, 3% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 16 | Slade CecconiCLE away vs MIN | 37.9 | 1.0% | 4.7% | 8.2% | 94.1 | 90.5team proxy | Target FieldSignificant HR Suppressor | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter | |
| 17 | Chase BurnsCIN home vs PHI | 34.7 | 0.9% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 91.0 | 94.2team proxy | Great American Ball ParkSignificant HR Boost | 90 F, 3 mph wind, 12% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 18 | George KirbySEA away vs MIA | 31.9 | 1.3% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 61.3 | 76.7team proxy | loanDepot parkMajor HR Suppressor | 84 F, 6 mph wind, 2% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 19 | Jose CabreraAZ away vs SD | 31.3 | 0.0% | 8.2% | 13.6% | 88.6team proxy | Petco ParkNeutral | 72 F, 4 mph wind, 0% rain | xHR support is there; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available | |
| 20 | Steven CruzKC away vs NYM | 30.9 | 0.0% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 101.2 | 96.0team proxy | Citi FieldSignificant HR Suppressor | 78 F, 10 mph wind, 0% rain | xHR support is there; Wind context available |
| 21 | Shane McClanahanTB home vs NYY | 30.8 | 0.9% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 80.7 | 104.1team proxy | Tropicana FieldNeutral | 90 F, 8 mph wind, 5% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available |
| 22 | Tyler PhillipsMIA home vs SEA | 29.5 | 0.9% | 3.5% | 8.1% | 74.1 | 92.4confirmed | loanDepot parkMajor HR Suppressor | 84 F, 6 mph wind, 2% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 23 | Logan WebbSF home vs TOR | 29.2 | 1.2% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 58.7 | 79.8confirmed | Oracle ParkSignificant HR Suppressor | 64 F, 14 mph wind, 0% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 24 | Troy MeltonDET home vs ATH | 22.0 | 0.8% | 3.1% | 8.1% | 65.3 | 91.4team proxy | Comerica ParkSignificant HR Suppressor | 87 F, 9 mph wind, 0% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 25 | MacKenzie GoreTEX home vs LAA | 17.6 | 0.8% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 58.8 | 88.8team proxy | Globe Life FieldSignificant HR Suppressor | 98 F, 9 mph wind, 0% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 26 | Dylan CeaseTOR away vs SF | 7.8 | 0.5% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 41.8 | 99.8confirmed | Oracle ParkSignificant HR Suppressor | 64 F, 14 mph wind, 0% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available |
| 27 | Walbert UreñaLAA away vs TEX | 5.2 | 0.0% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 37.5 | 94.1team proxy | Globe Life FieldSignificant HR Suppressor | 98 F, 9 mph wind, 0% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 28 | Davis MartinCWS home vs BOS | 5.0 | 0.4% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 38.6 | 83.0team proxy | Rate FieldSlight HR Boost | 80 F, 6 mph wind, 0% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 29 | Gabriel HughesCOL away vs LAD | 0.0% | 98.6team proxy | UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumSignificant HR Boost | 77 F, 6 mph wind, 0% rain | Missing inputs; Wind context available |
Stack Score remains pitcher-specific. Opponent lineup LBI, HR park factor, and weather are context only.