Hot Dog Damage Methodology

Stable concept URL: https://thelongball.app/about/hot-dog-index

Hot Dog Damage is the pitcher-facing companion to the Longball Index. LBI asks who creates longball contact. Hot Dog Damage asks who serves it up.

What Hot Dog Damage Measures

HDD v1.1 measures pitcher-side longball damage allowed, anchored by Adjusted xHR/BBE allowed and sharpened by HR-capable contact, no-doubters, Avg EV allowed, and HR-Window Thunder Allowed.

HR-Window Thunder Allowed measures 105+ mph batted balls allowed between 25° and 40°, per BBE allowed.

Hot Dog Damage v1.1 Formula

• Adjusted xHR/BBE allowed: 32.5%
• HR-capable BBE rate allowed: 20%
• No-Doubter rate allowed: 10%
• Average exit velocity allowed: 7.5%
• HR-Window Thunder Allowed: 30%

Hot Dog Damage vs. Getting Cooked

Hot Dog Damage is the broad pitcher-side longball damage volume check.

Getting Cooked is the league-scaled rate companion: premium longball damage served per 100 batted balls in play, with 100 equal to average.

Getting Cooked uses adjusted xHR, HR-Window Thunder BBE, no-doubters, and a light actual-HR component. Together, HDD and Getting Cooked separate pitchers with broad longball damage totals from pitchers serving premium damage most frequently.

Home Run Tracker Classifications

• No-Doubter Allowed: a batted ball that would clear all 30 MLB parks.
• Mostly Gone Allowed: a batted ball that would clear many parks, but not all.
• Doubter Allowed: a batted ball that would clear only a small number of parks.
• HR-Capable BBE: a batted ball classified as having home-run potential in at least one MLB park.

No-doubters carry the most weight, mostly-gone balls carry moderate weight, and doubters still count as HR-capable contact.

Meatball Context

A meatball is a Heart-zone pitch thrown below the pitcher's 25th-percentile velocity for that pitch type, with a 15+ pitch sample for that pitch type. The Hot Dog Stand identifies pitchers who have served up the most damage on these mistakes.

Known Limitations

• Hot Dog Damage may evolve as pitcher-side methodology is tested.
• It relies on Baseball Savant Home Run Tracker classifications and Statcast batted-ball data.
• Team attribution and pitcher role can be derived from available Statcast context and may not perfectly describe opener or bulk-relief usage.
• Getting Cooked is a raw premium damage-rate companion and should be read with sample size in mind.